Turning Point Compared to Trend Article

Turning Point Versus Trend

The true check of the relevance of a macroeconomic theory

can be its capacity to generate a Depression, seeing that market financial systems have on a regular basis found themselves in such a condition.

(Hyman Minsky)

Europe needs to be more accessible to the process of innovative destruction. (Philipp Schindler, a vice-president in Google)


Volodymyr Ryaboshlyk

[email protected] net

Numerical forecasting of crises can become much more articulated if it were inserted in forecasting of innovative growth. This old qualitative idea now has got new quantitative meaning and endorsement on thousands indicators of just one of the EUROPEAN UNION countries. The transition course of complete economy to new technology, starting from the ones, must be traced even more carefully, every structural alterations being taken into consideration. At that crises now and again occur as unavoidable parts of these types of paths. Which is one of substantial reasons for crises, which is still neglected. Simply this provides forecasting of the U-turns, rather than simple extrapolations of trends. Therefore such actual innovative factors should be added to regular examines of different predicting units to enforce classic forecasts depending on financial, behavioral and other factors. At the beginning of the paper a lot of shortcomings of the existing predicting systems will be demonstrated on examples of products of the EUROPEAN forecasting support and of the Macroeconomic Prospect Team with the Treasury from the UK. And apart than it the smoothed lines of Nobel Reward winner of 2010 Mentor Pissarides are thought in comparison with clear forecasts of turning details received by the author on the same time series. Then a description of predicting of the recession of the early on 1990s in the UK is given, as part of forecasting of innovative progress. It is underlined that figures must show explicitly ‘the height of technological leap' and provide separate parameters of old and new technology. And that the current focusing of attention on the most advanced technology only ought to be broadened to any or all technologies which usually actually are getting implementing throughout the economy. Comparison while using Cambridge Multisectoral Dynamic Type of the English Economy displays how peculiarities of reflection of new systems could influence ability of seeing turning points. By the end some comments are contributed to the current dialogue between the contending schools. Positive aspects of the " Great Recession” of 08 – 2010 are outlined along with their similarity with prior crises. In which an attempt to bring back the " shattered mental structure” of Alan Greenspan is made. 1 ) Turning Point is a Weak Point from the Forecasters

The decrease of 2009 had been expected almost because it actually started. In 3 years ago the official outlook of the EUROPEAN for 2009 (for two years forward) was 2, 1% of GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT growth, which usually resembled attention of the past facts. Eventually of 08 (forecast for one year forward) such attention provided 0, 4% decline for 2009, which was attention of the well-known data too. Actual decline was 4%.

Analogous situation in the UK is illustrated by one more manner. Only at the end of 2008 it absolutely was recognised that in 2009 the slowdown will turn in decrease. At the beginning of 2009 the depth of decrease had been suspected half proper (the forecast published in February 2009 was -2, 7%, real decline was -5%.

It is crystal clear that the existing methods cope with crises not so successfully. Improvement of crises forecasting needs better understanding of their root base. First of all it must be recognised that cyclical diminishes and upsurges are not arbitrary deviations via some " right” deterministic trend, but are to some extent deterministic itself. The difference between the two of these views will be illustrated over a pair of blueprints below, which usually analyse...

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